What if we told you that smoking might disappear in a generation? Smoking has evolved throughout the years and we have tried to keep a smoke-free environment but it hasn’t worked. Analysts have come up with a theory that smoking might disappear and it could be possible in 20 years, we are shook!
No Smoke Going Up In The Air
Analysts at Jeffries, have predicted that there could be no smokers in the market in 10 or 20 years which is massive. The government and tobacco companies have shown blatant acceptance of this shift as they wish that more countries would adopt smoke-free targets. The companies want to push smokers to use reduced-risk products (RRP) such as vaping and oral nicotine which is less harmful. The analysts have warned that in the next decade there could be no smokers left which would be of great surprise.
A new report suggests that cigarettes in developing counties may fall to zero in the next three decades if smokers quit or change to alternate products. The industry is going through a major change as people have taken up vaping or e-cigarettes more. It has been reported that the number of children smoking has plunged by almost three-quarters in the last 20 years. Whereas tobacco used by men has seen a decline which is a record that adds to the decline in the near future.
In an article, they mentioned a sustainability report predicted by CEO Andre Calantzopoulos said that he is convinced that the end of cigarette sales in many countries would happen within the next 10 or 15 years. Things have changed immensely over the years, we wouldn’t have thought of a vape pen a few years back.
Companies Adapt To The Shift Of Smoke-Free World
The analyst, Owen Bennett in a note wrote that regulators and tobacco ambitions were increasingly aligned in many countries that no smokers within a generation would soon become a reality. He mentioned that if smoke-free would happen, it could be achieved only with the support of RRP.
The Citigroup Inc Company had a similar prediction that cigarettes would become obsolete to an extent that smoking would disappear by 2050 from the USA, parts of Europe, Australia, and Latin America. If there is a decline in the recent decades, it could become reality.
The Citi Analyst, Adam Spielman wrote in a note that smoking has declined over the past five decades because of ESG Squeeze which consists of societal attitudes, regulation, and taxation.
Phillip Morris International is a cigarette company that makes Marlboro and Chesterfield warned that the sales of cigarettes will reach a total halt shortly most likely the next decade or so. The company has geared up with a smoking alternative that is the IQOS heated-tobacco device.
Altria Group Inc is a major player as 82% of its business comes from cigarettes, according to Spielman in an interview. Though the company has worked in producing alternatives, it isn’t in control of its vape technology as the major stake belongs to Juul Labs Inc. Spielman says that next-generation products have slowed the decline of nicotine use in the markets but it could be reversed soon.
Breathe In, Breathe Out
Last year saw a decline as the MSCI World Index had underperformed and smokeless products maker Swedish Match AB outperformed whereas Imperial Brands Plc lagged. Bennett wrote that Imperial brands would find it difficult to adapt to the change to smoke-free as it has a legacy in Europe and U.S which would downgrade their stock.
Bennette mentioned that if the end of smoking happens from the introduction of RRP and big tobacco takes a fair share, growth would be good and better than in the past. Michael R Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg News has campaigned in support of the U.S ban on flavored cigarettes. The tobacco giants have found ways to still be competitive in the market by switching from traditional tobacco products to e-cigarettes and vapor products.
Here is an interesting fact that parts of the U.S. have made decisions to legalize smoking cannabis whereas some have taken the plunge already. There is no clear evidence if the analysts are considering the consumption of marijuana through smoking in their prediction.
In a report by Futurism, they mentioned that companies are working hard to switch their customers to smoke-free products. They have a target of 40 million adult smokers to achieve the goal to go smoke-free by 2025 which is quite a task. In countries like China, France, and Russia smoking would still be common even in 2050, phew. A smoke-free world might be a bigger task than we presumed, breathe in.